Lisa Murkowski’s coalition is collapsing as her poll numbers plummet, threatening her political future and exposing deep fractures in Alaska’s centrist alliance.
Story Snapshot
- Murkowski’s favorability drops 28 points overall, including a staggering 75-point plunge among progressives.
- Her centrist coalition—long a fixture in Alaska politics—is rapidly unraveling amid shifting allegiances and increased polarization.
- Speculation intensifies about her possible run for governor, even as her support base erodes.
- Alaska’s unique open primaries and ranked-choice voting add further uncertainty to the state’s political future.
Poll Collapse Undermines Murkowski’s Political Anchor
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, Alaska’s emblem of centrist coalition-building, now faces a dramatic reversal of fortune. Recent polling by Alaska Survey Research shows her favorability has plunged to just 33%, with a net swing of negative 28 points since April. The most pronounced drop comes from progressive voters, among whom her net favorability cratered by 75 points. Moderates, once a reliable pillar of her coalition, have also withdrawn support. These numbers signal a seismic shift, raising fundamental questions about whether her broad-based, cross-party approach can survive under today’s heightened political polarization.
Historically, Murkowski’s coalition united moderate Republicans, independents, and Democrats, especially in urban centers like Anchorage and Juneau. This coalition enabled her to survive past challenges, including a famous write-in victory in 2010 after losing the Republican primary. But Alaska’s political landscape has changed. The implementation of ranked-choice voting and open primaries has increased the importance—yet fragility—of centrist alliances. Recent developments, including her support for President Trump’s tax and spending bill, have angered both the left and right, prompting some voters to label her a “Republican in name only,” and others to accuse her of betraying progressive values.
Controversy Over Trump Bill Fuels Backlash
Murkowski’s support for the Trump tax and spending bill has been particularly divisive. Her explanation that the vote was “agonizing” failed to placate former allies, especially progressives concerned about cuts to federal funding and social programs. Alaska’s heavy reliance on federal dollars makes such measures politically sensitive, and the anticipated reductions have alarmed many constituents. While conservatives remain largely critical of her record, their opinions have not shifted significantly, indicating her base of support is now narrower than ever. The ongoing fallout demonstrates just how precarious coalition politics have become in Alaska’s current climate.
Possible gubernatorial ambitions further complicate Murkowski’s standing. She has openly discussed considering a run for governor, but has downplayed the seriousness of her comments in recent interviews. With Governor Mike Dunleavy term-limited and not seeking re-election, the field is wide open. Yet Murkowski’s declining popularity may deter her from entering a race that would demand strong support from an already fractured coalition. Political observers and party strategists are closely watching whether these dynamics embolden challengers from both the Republican and Democratic camps, potentially reshaping the state’s leadership landscape.
Alaska’s Political Future: Polarization and Uncertainty
The collapse of Murkowski’s coalition has significant implications for Alaska’s political realignment. If her centrist model fails, Alaska could become more polarized, with moderates and progressives left politically homeless. The Republican Party may seize the opportunity to consolidate power, especially as frustration grows over national issues such as government overreach, fiscal mismanagement, and controversial social agendas. Meanwhile, Alaska’s unique electoral system—designed to reward coalition-building—could come under scrutiny if voters lose faith in the process. Experts point out that the unprecedented speed and scale of Murkowski’s decline highlight the risks of ideological inconsistency in today’s politics, and the challenges faced by those who attempt to bridge deepening divides.
Murkowski's Poll Numbers Crash As She Considers Run for AK Governor https://t.co/FKdsihWFJy
— Deport, Deport, Deport! 🇺🇸🟦 (@etn_patriot) August 6, 2025
As Murkowski is not up for Senate re-election until 2028, she faces a crucial period to either rebuild her political alliances or risk permanent marginalization. The situation underscores a broader trend: as traditional coalitions fracture under pressure from both sides, Alaska—and by extension, states with similar systems—may see greater instability and uncertainty in their political future. For conservatives concerned about the erosion of constitutional values, unchecked spending, and the spread of unaccountable coalitions, Murkowski’s rapid fall serves as both a warning and a call for renewed vigilance in defending principled leadership.
