CHINA’S TALIBAN GRAB Sparks Anti-India Mineral Rush

China’s strategic embrace of the Taliban reaches new heights as Beijing invites Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister for a historic May 2025 visit, signaling a bold move to secure mineral wealth, counter U.S. influence, and strategically sideline India from regional power dynamics.

Key Takeaways

China has invited Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi for an official visit in May 2025, marking a significant diplomatic advancement after accepting a Taliban-appointed ambassador in February.
Beijing is extending its Belt and Road Initiative into Afghanistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, targeting Afghanistan’s estimated $1-3 trillion in mineral resources including copper and lithium.
China, Pakistan, and the Taliban have formed a strategic trilateral alliance explicitly designed to limit India’s influence in Afghanistan.
Chinese exports to Afghanistan increased 18.7% in 2025, with semiconductor exports surging 621%, while China granted zero tariffs on 98% of Afghan goods.
The Taliban have pledged to prevent Afghan territory from being used against Chinese interests, particularly targeting the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

Beijing’s Diplomatic Offensive: Legitimizing the Taliban Regime

China’s invitation to Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi for an official visit in late May 2025 represents the culmination of Beijing’s carefully calculated strategy to normalize relations with Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate. This diplomatic maneuver follows China’s groundbreaking acceptance of a Taliban-appointed ambassador in February 2025, making it the first major power to formally recognize the Taliban’s diplomatic representatives. The upcoming visit is expected to focus on formalizing political ties and accelerating economic cooperation, particularly in Afghanistan’s lucrative mining sector.

China’s engagement with the Taliban dates back to March 2022, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi became the first high-ranking foreign official to meet Taliban leaders in Kabul after their takeover. During that visit, Wang emphasized China’s policy of non-interference while criticizing Western sanctions, clearly signaling Beijing’s intent to treat the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate governing authority. This stance has remained consistent, with China repeatedly advocating for the Taliban’s inclusion in regional forums despite international hesitation.

Economic Exploitation: China’s Resource Grab in Afghanistan

Behind the diplomatic niceties lies China’s true objective: securing access to Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth, estimated at between $1-3 trillion. Chinese firms are actively exploring Afghanistan’s resources, with projects in the Aynak copper mine and Badakhshan’s lithium deposits advancing steadily. The establishment of a joint working group in April 2025 aims to address logistical challenges in extracting and exporting these valuable resources. For Beijing, Afghanistan represents a critical opportunity to diversify its mineral supply chains amid growing global competition.

Trade between the two nations has flourished under this arrangement, reaching $135 million in March 2025—an 18.7% increase from the previous year. Chinese exports dominate this relationship, with synthetic fabrics, semiconductors, and rubber tires flowing into Afghanistan. To maintain the appearance of mutual benefit, China granted zero tariffs on 98% of Afghan goods in 2022, a policy that remains in place while ensuring Chinese economic dominance continues unchallenged.

Belt and Road Expansion: Integrating Afghanistan into China’s Global Network

The extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan represents a pivotal development in China’s regional strategy. Agreed upon during trilateral talks in May 2025, this expansion envisions joint industrial parks, special economic zones, and transport networks linking Pakistan’s Gwadar Port to Afghanistan’s resource-rich regions. These initiatives are designed to integrate Afghanistan into China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), creating new pathways for Chinese economic and political influence throughout Central Asia.

“The Taliban’s acting commerce minister, Nooruddin Azizi, has emphasized Afghanistan’s readiness to integrate into BRI, citing improved security and streamlined regulations for foreign investors.”

For the cash-strapped Taliban regime, Chinese investment offers a desperately needed economic lifeline amid continued international isolation. The Taliban have eagerly embraced these opportunities, highlighting improved security conditions and regulatory reforms designed to attract Chinese capital. However, this economic dependence comes at a significant cost: increasing subordination to Chinese strategic interests and priorities in the region.

The Anti-India Alliance: China, Pakistan, and the Taliban

Perhaps most revealing of China’s true intentions is the formation of a strategic trilateral alliance between China, Pakistan, and the Taliban. The May 2025 meetings in Kabul resulted in explicit agreements to limit India’s role in Afghanistan to mere diplomatic functions while excluding New Delhi from meaningful regional initiatives. This alignment reflects shared concerns over India’s growing influence in Central Asia and its strategic partnership with the United States—both viewed as threats to Chinese regional hegemony.

Pakistan has played a crucial role in facilitating this anti-India coalition, leveraging its historical ties with the Taliban to advance Chinese interests. The Taliban’s tacit support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir—including calls for an “impartial investigation” into a recent incident in Pahalgam—demonstrates how Afghanistan is being weaponized against Indian interests. Meanwhile, India’s trade with Afghanistan, which reached $300 million in 2024, pales in comparison to the strategic advantages gained by the China-Pakistan axis.

Security Cooperation: The Taliban as China’s Border Guards

Beyond economic exploitation, China has secured the Taliban’s cooperation in suppressing perceived security threats. Beijing’s primary concern remains the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which it claims operates from Afghan territory to promote separatism in China’s Xinjiang region. During high-level meetings, Taliban officials have repeatedly pledged to “resolutely crack down” on the group—essentially agreeing to serve as China’s border security force against fellow Muslims while Beijing continues its widely-documented persecution of Uyghurs.

Reports of Chinese military delegations visiting the strategic Wakhan Corridor in January 2025 suggest heightened border surveillance and coordination with Taliban forces. These measures aim to secure China’s BRI investments while preventing any cross-border militancy that might threaten Chinese interests. For the Taliban, this security partnership offers legitimacy and protection from international pressure, even as it compromises their claims of independence and sovereignty.

America’s Strategic Failure: China Fills the Vacuum

The China-Taliban partnership in 2025 represents a profound strategic failure for American foreign policy. After two decades of military intervention and billions in aid, the United States has been effectively replaced by China as the dominant external power in Afghanistan. Beijing has achieved this position without firing a shot or deploying troops, instead using economic incentives and diplomatic engagement to secure its objectives. The result is a Afghanistan increasingly aligned with Chinese interests and hostile to American values and influence.

For the Biden administration, which oversaw the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, China’s success in courting the Taliban highlights the consequences of strategic incoherence and abandonment. While American taxpayers funded Afghanistan’s reconstruction for years, it is Chinese companies that now stand to profit from the country’s mineral wealth. This outcome not only damages American credibility but strengthens an authoritarian rival determined to reshape the international order according to its own autocratic vision.