Trump Gains Edge Over Harris in Key North Carolina Poll for 2024 Election

Man in suit pointing, crowd in background.

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by five points in a new North Carolina poll, signaling a potential shift in the crucial swing state ahead of the 2024 election.

At a Glance

  • Trump leads Harris by 5 percentage points in North Carolina, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll
  • The economy, border security, and abortion are top issues for voters
  • 70% of respondents desire a “major change” from the next president
  • North Carolina has been moved from “lean Republican” to a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report
  • The state has 16 electoral college votes, making it significant in the election

Trump Gains Ground in Crucial Swing State

A recent Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,042 likely voters in North Carolina has revealed a significant lead for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll shows Trump ahead by five percentage points, highlighting the state’s potential to swing the 2024 presidential election results.

North Carolina, with its 16 electoral college votes, has become increasingly important in recent elections. The Cook Political Report has reclassified the state from “lean Republican” to a “toss up,” reflecting its evolving political landscape.

Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment

The economy remains the top concern for North Carolina voters, followed closely by border security and abortion rights. These issues are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 election in this battleground state.

“The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat less than four weeks before the election according to a string of surveys this month that show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in recent weeks.”

Notably, 70% of respondents expressed a desire for “major change” from the next president, suggesting a potential advantage for Trump as the challenger to the incumbent administration.

Shifting Demographics and Political Landscape

North Carolina’s evolving political dynamics can be attributed to its changing demographics. The state has seen a growing population of Democratic-leaning voters, particularly in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area. This shift has contributed to North Carolina’s status as a “toss-up” state, as classified by FiveThirtyEight, alongside six other swing states.

“looks more competitive than ever” – The Cook Political Report

Despite Trump’s lead in North Carolina, the national picture remains competitive. Harris leads Trump by 2.4 percentage points in the national FiveThirtyEight average and by four points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll. However, Trump has gained momentum in several swing states, leading in Arizona and pulling even in Nevada.

Generational Divide and Latino Vote

While Trump leads in North Carolina, Harris shows strength among younger voters nationally. A new Marist poll indicates that Harris leads among all generations, with particularly strong support from Generation Z and millennials at 53% compared to Trump’s 47%.

“A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking.”

The Latino vote, crucial in many swing states, appears to be in flux. Harris maintains a lead among Latino voters, but recent polls suggest this advantage may be narrowing, potentially impacting the race in key battleground states.

Looking Ahead to Election Day

As the 2024 election approaches, North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes could prove decisive in a close race. With both campaigns likely to focus heavily on the state, voters can expect intense campaigning and frequent polling updates in the coming months.

“The temptation will be to try to attach interpretations to every swing up or down in a candidate’s polling, but most of the time, short-term fluctuations in polling are not meaningful. Poll respondents do not make their decisions in exactly the same way voters ultimately do.”

While current polls provide valuable insights, it’s important to remember that voter sentiment can shift rapidly. As one analyst noted, the race is “going to bounce up and down a bit between now and Election Day.” With North Carolina’s status as a true battleground state, the outcome remains far from certain, ensuring that every vote will count in this crucial swing state.

Sources:

  1. Donald Trump Surging Ahead of Kamala Harris in North Carolina: New Poll
  2. North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead
  3. Kamala Harris Now Leads Donald Trump Among Every Generation: Poll