Russia’s Oreshnik Missile Disrupting NATO’s Strategic Balance?

Russia’s new Oreshnik missile poses unprecedented threats to NATO’s strategic defenses, prompting urgent assessments on its potential impact.

Quick Takes

The Oreshnik missile made its combat debut with a strike in Ukraine.
Traveling at Mach 10, it’s nearly impervious to interception by current systems.
Its deployment is planned in Belarus by 2025, threatening NATO readiness.
Military experts urge dispersing NATO aircraft to mitigate missile threats.

Russia’s New Missile Unveiled

Russia’s recent use of the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine indicates a shift in its military capabilities. On November 21, Russia deployed this medium-range ballistic missile against a military facility in Dnipro, marking its first use in combat. The missile, traveling at Mach 10, boasts immunities against Western missile defense systems.

The Oreshnik’s range covers all European targets, complicating NATO’s strategic approach. Its ability to carry both nuclear and conventional warheads broadens Russia’s tactical options, acting as a crucial instrument for non-nuclear engagements.

putin threatened in a fear mongering speech, to strike countries that allowed Ukraine to use its weapons to attack targets on Russian territory.

“In response to the use of US and British long-range weapons on November 21, 2023, the Russian Armed Forces launched a combined… pic.twitter.com/EitPDmDg74

— Yasmina (@yasminalombaert) November 21, 2024

Strategic Implications for NATO

Military specialists indicate NATO aircraft and bases are particularly vulnerable to the Oreshnik. Concentrated operational capacities make NATO forces easy targets, leading experts to suggest dispersing these forces in Europe. This shift could reduce reliance on the large airbases currently susceptible to Russia’s advanced missiles.

“Modern fighter jets—the F-35, which many NATO nations are increasingly using as their multirole aircraft of choice—are too complex to be field repaired. The F-35 and similar aircraft were designed to be operated from large, advanced air bases. Decades of budget cuts have concentrated NATO air forces in just a few of these bases, making them particularly vulnerable to Oreshnik-type missiles,” said Decker Eveleth, analyst with CNA.

Russia’s future plans to station the Oreshnik missile in Belarus by 2025 could significantly alter NATO’s current threat landscape. This deployment further complicates the strategic outlook, necessitating adjustments to defense and response strategies.

BREAKING NEWS: PUTIN HAS THREATENED TO FIRE MISSILES INTO EUROPE AND AMERICA!!!!!

Transcript:

Dear friends!

I would like to inform the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian

Federation, the citizens of our country, our friends in

the whole world, as well as those who… pic.twitter.com/Otbk9HkKK3

— alex (@Alexzawesome123) November 21, 2024

Military Analysis and Context

The Oreshnik missile’s development, based on the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM, marks a pivotal shift in Russia’s military strategy. As an experimental intermediate-range missile, it can deliver nuclear or conventional payloads across vast distances, broadening the operational spectrum for Russia without immediate nuclear escalation. This evolution in weaponry furthers strategic objectives and provides an advanced non-nuclear approach.

“The good news is that Oreshnik’s conventional capabilities will give Russia more non-nuclear options, theoretically reducing the risk that the Kremlin will consider using nuclear weapons early in a conflict. The bad news is that Oreshnik’s non-nuclear capabilities mean Russia will have more options to significantly disrupt NATO operations at the conventional level,” said Eveleth.

As Western defenses are currently inadequate against such advanced weaponry, regular maintenance drills and technological advancements are essential to enhance deterrence and mitigate emerging threats.