Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Changes: Western Tensions and Aggression Factors

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a revised nuclear doctrine, potentially lowering the threshold for nuclear response if Russia or its allies are attacked.

At a Glance

Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine, aligning with NATO’s collective defense principle
The doctrine allows nuclear response to attacks on Russia supported by a nuclear power
It includes provisions for nuclear response if Russian territory is isolated or if Belarus is attacked
The signing coincided with the 1,000th day of the war with Ukraine
The update is not seen as a drastic change in Russia’s nuclear weapons policy

Russia’s Updated Nuclear Doctrine

In a significant move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine for Russia. This revision comes at a time of heightened tensions with the West and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The new policy emphasizes nuclear deterrence against potential enemies and considers nuclear weapon use as an “extreme measure.” It prioritizes deterring aggression against Russia and its allies, ensuring adversaries understand the inevitability of retaliation.

The doctrine now allows for a nuclear response to attacks on Russia supported by a nuclear power, even if the attacking nation itself is not a nuclear state. This expansion of conditions for nuclear weapon use includes responses to air attacks involving ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft, drones, and other flying vehicles.

Alignment with NATO’s Principle

The updated doctrine mirrors NATO’s collective defense principle, often summarized as “an attack on one is an attack on all.” This shift in policy allows Russia to share its nuclear deterrence with its allies, most notably Belarus. The inclusion of Belarus in the doctrine is particularly noteworthy, as it allows for a potential nuclear response to aggression against this key Russian ally.

“President Vladimir Putin has approved Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine to share the country’s nuclear deterrence with its allies—mirroring NATO’s “attack on one member is an attack on all” doctrine.” – Source

Despite the seemingly aggressive stance, the doctrine also emphasizes Russia’s commitment to reducing nuclear threats and preventing military conflicts, including nuclear ones. This dual approach of deterrence and conflict prevention highlights the complex nature of nuclear policy in today’s geopolitical landscape.

Timing and Context

The timing of this doctrinal update is significant. Putin signed the revised doctrine on the 1,000th day of the war with Ukraine, shortly after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles against Russia. This context has led to speculation about whether the policy change is a direct response to these developments.

“in line with the current situation” – Source

However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the doctrine was updated to align with the current situation and was not a direct response to Biden’s actions. The spokesperson emphasized that the changes were made “in a timely manner,” suggesting that this was part of a broader strategic reassessment rather than a knee-jerk reaction to recent events.

Implications and Analysis

While the language in the new guidelines may seem threatening, experts caution against interpreting this as a drastic alteration of Russia’s nuclear weapons policy. The doctrine does not guarantee a nuclear response but highlights the “uncertainty of scale, time and place” of potential nuclear deterrent use. This ambiguity is likely intentional, designed to maintain strategic unpredictability.

“Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, previously told Newsweek that, while the new guidelines were threatening in their language, they did not represent a “drastic” alteration of the country’s guidelines on nuclear weapons use.” – Source

Nevertheless, the revised doctrine does lower the threshold for potential nuclear response, particularly in scenarios involving attacks supported by nuclear powers or against Russian allies. This development underscores the volatile nature of nuclear deterrence in the current geopolitical climate and highlights the precarious balance between strategic deterrence and the risk of conflict escalation.