(TargetLiberty.org) – The Hill and Decision Desk HQ released on Wednesday a forecast model which showed that with only five months to go until the presidential election, the Republican Party and former President Donald Trump are the favorites to win the White House, as well as gain control of the two chambers in Congress.
According to the released model, Trump has a 58 percent chance of winning the White House, while he is shown to have a slight lead in the majority of key swing states in the presidential race. The GOP is also shown to have a comfortable lead in the Senate and House races as they are shown to have an 80 percent chance of winning the upper chamber and a 64 percent chance of maintaining their House majority.
Decision Desk HQ has used a similar framework in the 2020 and 2022 elections, but this model includes a few changes. For this model, it factors in around 200 different data points which are factored in to include probabilities including voter registration, past election results, fundraising, and polling averages.
Decision Desk HQ director of data science Scott Tranter has emphasized that the projections and data are only representative of this time and that there was space for a lot of things to change until Election Day. He added that in a way the model was like taking a test but the results did not count. As he pointed out no one was voting today and if they did select the president or senators today then this model showcases how that would likely look.
However, the new projections could lead to more anxiety within the Democratic Party as they are trying to flip these projections.
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