Chinese Nuclear Arsenal Grows: How Will This Impact Global Stability?

Line of nuclear missiles with radiation hazard signs.

China’s announcement of a significant nuclear arsenal expansion challenges global security and U.S. relations, raising fears of an arms race.

At a Glance

  • The Pentagon reports China now has over 500 operational nuclear warheads, showing rapid growth.
  • China’s strategy is deemed defensive, with a goal to ensure security needs amidst U.S. warnings.
  • Global concerns rise over China’s nuclear arsenal potentially reaching U.S. and Russian levels.
  • The nuclear expansion is seen as part of strategic competition with the United States.

China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal

The Pentagon’s latest report reveals China now has over 500 operational nuclear warheads, marking a swift rise from previous counts. Since 2020, China has made significant advancements, constructing silos and initiating new warhead and launcher developments. The Chinese government justifies this expansion as a security necessity, claiming it is a response to U.S. warnings about its mass destruction weapons. China’s nuclear program, primarily defensive, aims to counter existing nuclear threats.

In addition, the transformation in China’s approach to nuclear weapons reflects a strategic shift. “It is a complete transformation of China’s approach to nuclear weapons,” notes M. Taylor Fravel. China’s expansion aims to achieve a projected arsenal of about 1,500 warheads by 2035. This growth signifies a dynamic strategic competition with the United States, intensifying concerns of an arms race.

Global Implications and Strategic Concerns

China’s nuclear arsenal remains significantly smaller compared to the U.S. and Russia, each possessing over 5,000 warheads. Nonetheless, global strategic stability concerns grow as China could match these nations’ capabilities. China’s reported development of non-nuclear warheads capable of reaching parts of the continental United States further amplifies these fears. Moreover, the People’s Liberation Army appears to be preparing for potential forceful unification of Taiwan with China, heightening military tensions.

“It gets more dangerous as other countries proliferate [nuclear] weapons. It gets more dangerous as people think about using tactical nuclear weapons,” said U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall.

The evolving nuclear landscape highlights the potential for future arms control agreements involving the U.S., China, and Russia. The U.S. may engage in practice force enhancements to maintain a balanced strategic posture. However, both nations, with extensive nuclear arsenals, must prioritize dialogues to avert potential conflicts.

China’s Stance on Nuclear Policy

Despite its expansion, China consistently claims it does not engage in arms races, focusing on a “nuclear strategy of self-defense.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun emphasized China’s commitment to peaceful global development. “China’s development of nuclear weapons is a historic choice forced to be made,” said Guo Jiakun. As a responsible major country, China pledges peace and international cooperation. These assertions present a stark contrast against the backdrop of military improvements and strategic objectives.

China’s nuclear strategy, primarily defensive, seeks to prevent nuclear wars while maintaining global peace. Steady and peaceful development, accompanied by strategic competition, remains a balancing act requiring diplomatic maneuvers. Continuous defense dialogues are essential for managing global nuclear capabilities and ensuring mutual understanding.

Sources:

  1. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1207156597/new-pentagon-report-claims-china-now-has-over-500-operational-nuclear-warheads
  2. https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-responds-us-nuclear-weapons-warning-2015829
  3. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-says-forced-to-acquire-nuclear-weapons-as-us-sounds-warning/ar-AA1xiq9Z?ocid=BingNewsSerp
  4. https://dnyuz.com/2025/01/16/china-says-forced-to-acquire-nuclear-weapons-as-us-sounds-warning/